Updated 1/24
This is in the why isn't it breaking category: a story published by Haaretz on January 18 and picked up by Juan Cole a day or two later: it seems that Israeli intelligence services have come up with an estimate, to be published some time this week, that Iran has not yet decided whether to build a nuclear weapon.
That is, it's not news to everybody that Iran has not—so far—decided to build a nuclear weapon. National Intelligence Estimates [jump]
from the US intelligence agencies said so in 2007, and 2009, and 2011... But we hear endlessly about "Israel's fears of a nuclear Iran", shared by all the Gulf Arab states, etc., etc., for which Iran must be punished with ever severer sanctions, while some insist only a military attack will do, lest Israel do it first.
Then again, I wouldn't say the only thing Israel has to fear is fear itself, but I would say fear itself is getting to be a problem:
Anyway, some calm appears to have arrived, and defense minister Ehud Barak is telling journalists that any attack on Iran would be "very far off.... certainly not urgent." Cole thinks credit for this healthy development should go to the very quiet efforts of Barack Obama, who may have seen the current hysteria on all sides, including threats to blockade the Hormuz Strait, as something to fe... ah, be rather concerned about. If so, he may be starting to earn that Nobel Prize.
Update 1/24/2012
General Martin Dempsey's meetings with Israeli defense and intelligence officials, where the Haaretz story said this intelligence report was going to be revealed, are reported in the Washington Post:
This is in the why isn't it breaking category: a story published by Haaretz on January 18 and picked up by Juan Cole a day or two later: it seems that Israeli intelligence services have come up with an estimate, to be published some time this week, that Iran has not yet decided whether to build a nuclear weapon.
That is, it's not news to everybody that Iran has not—so far—decided to build a nuclear weapon. National Intelligence Estimates [jump]
from the US intelligence agencies said so in 2007, and 2009, and 2011... But we hear endlessly about "Israel's fears of a nuclear Iran", shared by all the Gulf Arab states, etc., etc., for which Iran must be punished with ever severer sanctions, while some insist only a military attack will do, lest Israel do it first.
Then again, I wouldn't say the only thing Israel has to fear is fear itself, but I would say fear itself is getting to be a problem:
Israel fears Iran will copy its policy of nuclear ambiguity
Israel fears Hezbollah has killer SAMs
Israel fears the force of Arab Spring power shift
Israel Fears ‘Syria’s Chemical, Biological Weapons Could be Transferred to Hizbullah’
Israel’s fear and loathing of Obama
Israel's Fear of Jewish Girls Dating Arabs; Team of Psychologists to "Rescue" Women
Israelis fear sushi shortage after quake
 |
| Daniel Jamieson's dramatization of Graham Greene's The Ministry of Fear, by the UK's Theater Alibi, April 2010. Image from The Guardian. Apparently the play stank. |
Anyway, some calm appears to have arrived, and defense minister Ehud Barak is telling journalists that any attack on Iran would be "very far off.... certainly not urgent." Cole thinks credit for this healthy development should go to the very quiet efforts of Barack Obama, who may have seen the current hysteria on all sides, including threats to blockade the Hormuz Strait, as something to fe... ah, be rather concerned about. If so, he may be starting to earn that Nobel Prize.
Update 1/24/2012
General Martin Dempsey's meetings with Israeli defense and intelligence officials, where the Haaretz story said this intelligence report was going to be revealed, are reported in the Washington Post:
The chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, Army Gen. Martin Dempsey, and Israeli leaders kept silent about the exact content of their discussions. Dempsey was expected to urge Israel not to rush to attack Iran at a time when the U.S. is trying to rally additional global support to pressure Tehran through sanctions to dial back its nuclear program.No mention of the report, but an indirect semi-denial by an officially-unofficial person of note:
In an interview published Friday in the Israeli daily Maariv, Israel’s recently retired military intelligence chief Amos Yadlin, said the U.S. and Israel now agree that Iran is deliberately working slowly toward nuclear weapons, to minimize international diplomatic pressure and sanctions.The Haaretz reporter, Amos Harel, is still claiming
Israeli intelligence officials believe that Iran has yet to reach a final decision regarding an attempt to assemble a nuclear bomb. The Americans concur with this analysis. Moving ahead with an effort to make a bomb entails a cost - by demonstratively blocking any IAEA monitoring efforts, Iran would have to endure yet stiffer sanctions.but it doesn't sound as impressive as before. Also, it seems everybody has an agenda.
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