Hi Cowpokes from Mike's Roundup, thanks Monsieur Bouffant!
Jordan writes in comments:
But they're still a minority and always will be. He's now back to a more normal 8.6 points underwater in the 538 average. Which doesn't in itself stop him from winning (on election day 2016 he was down 13 points in the Gallup poll!), but it takes more cooperation from Fate and from the Democrats than he's likely to get a second time. Saying there's any likelihood he'd be able to steal it through the Electoral College the way he did last time would be in the hot-hands universe, I think, because it took such a lot of factors to line up, and most of them won't be available to him this year. Not Wisconsin and Michigan.
In Wisconsin on 7 April all the best efforts of Republicans and coronaviruses were unable to prevent 1.55 million people from casting votes, a remarkably high 34% of the voters, even though there was little suspense over who was going to win either contest (but it was more boring for Republicans, down 43% from 2016, than Democrats, down just 7.6%).
It remains a question whether Biden can be Hillaryized by the combined forces of the cosplay left, slandering right, and Russian Facebook accounts, but the latest effort seems to be foundering, as the New York Times and Washington Post have handled the bogus allegation of sexual assault the way they should have handled the bogus Clinton email story four years ago, reporting really deeply before they published anything, and while they're both too bothsiderist to acknowledge it, the story withered away under scrutiny. The exotic accuser, a former vice presidential staffer called Tara Reade, had also joined in last year's accusations of unwanted shoulder touching and hair sniffing, but telling WaPo, in terms that made it clear that getting fired was her main grievance,
And honestly, the press just doesn't hate Joe the way they hate Hillary, and simply will not fall for the garbage they fell for in 2016.
As far as I can see, the Covid-19 crisis doesn't change the equation at all unless to make the Trump base slightly less likely to vote—not changing their minds about Trump, just not naturally being voters, and easily discouraged from making the effort (but this was not the case in Wisconsin, I don't think; a ton of Republicans came out, considering Trump had no opposition, but the Democrats came out more, and much more than enough to make the difference in the State Supreme Court contest) and Democrats more likely as we see our lives deliberately endangered, particularly people of color with their unconscionable higher rates of infection and death. The biggest threat to Democrats is the threat of voter suppression, and to a remarkable degree, as we saw in Milwaukee with its five polling stations, makes angry voters angrier. November will be a referendum on Trump, and his followers will be loyal, but there are more of us than there are of them, and we really want him out.
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| Via All Hat No Cattle. |
Jordan writes in comments:
Yas, what do you think of Steve's new post about how the likelihood that testing won't get straightened out by November won't affect Trump's reëlection chances?
Not to impugn Steve, obviously (and we all know he's been on that side of every "Trump support will not flag" argument), but I wonder whether this is a "hot hand fallacy" (to the extent that I understand the idea: I admit I got it from The Big Short) -- whether this is finally Trump's Waterloo or whether that's as false as it's been every previous time.As usual, I think Steve is right-but: he's always right when he says Trump support won't flag, that's not a "hot hands" fallacy but a consistent reality of the last four years and he's been on it from the start.
But they're still a minority and always will be. He's now back to a more normal 8.6 points underwater in the 538 average. Which doesn't in itself stop him from winning (on election day 2016 he was down 13 points in the Gallup poll!), but it takes more cooperation from Fate and from the Democrats than he's likely to get a second time. Saying there's any likelihood he'd be able to steal it through the Electoral College the way he did last time would be in the hot-hands universe, I think, because it took such a lot of factors to line up, and most of them won't be available to him this year. Not Wisconsin and Michigan.
In Wisconsin on 7 April all the best efforts of Republicans and coronaviruses were unable to prevent 1.55 million people from casting votes, a remarkably high 34% of the voters, even though there was little suspense over who was going to win either contest (but it was more boring for Republicans, down 43% from 2016, than Democrats, down just 7.6%).
It remains a question whether Biden can be Hillaryized by the combined forces of the cosplay left, slandering right, and Russian Facebook accounts, but the latest effort seems to be foundering, as the New York Times and Washington Post have handled the bogus allegation of sexual assault the way they should have handled the bogus Clinton email story four years ago, reporting really deeply before they published anything, and while they're both too bothsiderist to acknowledge it, the story withered away under scrutiny. The exotic accuser, a former vice presidential staffer called Tara Reade, had also joined in last year's accusations of unwanted shoulder touching and hair sniffing, but telling WaPo, in terms that made it clear that getting fired was her main grievance,
“This is what I want to emphasize: It’s not him. It’s the people around him who keep covering for him,” Reade said, adding later, “For instance, he should have known what was happening to me. . . . Looking back now, that’s my criticism. Maybe he could have been a little more in touch with his own staff.”(WaPo hadn't been able to corroborate her story last year and didn't include it in their coverage, but still had the interview notes available—sometimes the OCD of today's journalism really pays off.) And then
After Reade went public with her account of harassment, she faced a backlash on social media. Her effusive praise for Russian President Vladimir Putin — she described him in a Medium post in December 2018 as a “compassionate, caring, visionary leader” — led to attacks that she was seeking to advance Russian interests.And now a weird story has surfaced:
according to which she had tricked the vet who treated her horse into billing a charity she falsely claimed to work for and absconded. It's presumably the same charity (but a different ex) she told The Times about, suggesting that whether or not she works for Russians she really is a compulsive liar:@joanwalsh I knew Tara Reade (Tara McCabe) from 2006 to 2016. She stole from my nonprofit, lied, created stories to obtain sympathy and money. Fled across the nation from Calif. to Georgia to run away from an "abusive X". She is a fraud. Bragged about her work with Biden— Pregnant Mare Rescue (@mare_rescue) April 19, 2020
A single mother, she changed her name for protection after leaving an abusive marriage in the late 1990s and put herself through law school in Seattle. After leaving Mr. Biden’s office, she eventually returned to the West Coast, where she worked for a state senator; as an advocate for domestic violence survivors, testifying as an expert witness in court; and for animal rescue organizations.(You can read the whole thread for more details, some of them slightly lubricious. I hope not to have to discuss it much further, other than to add that I do #BelieveWomen but that has to mean "as long as the evidence allows me to do so".)
And honestly, the press just doesn't hate Joe the way they hate Hillary, and simply will not fall for the garbage they fell for in 2016.
As far as I can see, the Covid-19 crisis doesn't change the equation at all unless to make the Trump base slightly less likely to vote—not changing their minds about Trump, just not naturally being voters, and easily discouraged from making the effort (but this was not the case in Wisconsin, I don't think; a ton of Republicans came out, considering Trump had no opposition, but the Democrats came out more, and much more than enough to make the difference in the State Supreme Court contest) and Democrats more likely as we see our lives deliberately endangered, particularly people of color with their unconscionable higher rates of infection and death. The biggest threat to Democrats is the threat of voter suppression, and to a remarkable degree, as we saw in Milwaukee with its five polling stations, makes angry voters angrier. November will be a referendum on Trump, and his followers will be loyal, but there are more of us than there are of them, and we really want him out.
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