Showing posts with label presidential election. Show all posts
Showing posts with label presidential election. Show all posts

Friday, July 17, 2026

Assessments

Wuhan wet market (not, I think, the one where the coronavirus emerged). Photo by Arend Kuester via UCLA Newsroom.

I was interested in finding something precise about the "new evidence" the Trumpers claimed to have discovered implicating the Chinese government in interfering with the 2020 US national elections and trying to evaluate it myself, really just for something I could get an analytic handle on, but considerably more interested when I learned from a Reuters report that the Trumpers' point man on the project was our old pal John Solomon, the "investigative" journalist who had been fired by the conservative The Hill over his coverage of the Uranium One controversy of 2017, where he was a key figure in the rightwing effort to implicate Hillary Clinton in a fictitious bribery scandal; Rudolph Giuliani's collaborator in the effort to create a Ukrainian bribery scandal implicating Hunter Biden and possibly President Joe Biden, over which Trump was impeached in 2019; and Kash Patel's partner in the management of the stolen government documents at Mar-a-Lago for which Trump was indicted in federal court in 2023. So I naturally smelled some dirt. 

The thing itself wasn't all that new: it was that when the National Intelligence Community issued its report on foreign interference in the 2020 election, in March 2021, one of the authors, National Intelligence Officer for Cyber Christopher Porter, was not in total agreement with its finding on China:

Key Judgment 4: We assess that China did not deploy interference efforts and considered but did not deploy influence efforts intended to change the outcome of the US Presidential election. We have high confidence in this judgment. China sought stability in its relationship with the United States, did not view either election outcome as being advantageous enough for China to risk getting caught meddling, and assessed its traditional influence tools— primarily targeted economic measures and lobbying—would be sufficient to meet its goal of shaping US China policy regardless of the winner. The NIO for Cyber assesses, however, that China did take some steps to try to undermine former President Trump’s reelection. (My bold)

But Porter's specific reasons for objecting did not make it into the declassified version. Now his explanation (co-signed by a nameless Director for Election Threat Analysis) is available too in PDF format, if in a heavily redacted form, among the documents released in Trump's latest effort to show that there might have been a bit of foreign interference against Trump (in addition to the well-known interference in Trump's behalf on the part of the Israeli and Russian governments):

Wednesday, January 12, 2022

Literary Corner: Look at Pennsylvania!

 

One way to look at Pennsylvania. Via Philadelphia Magazine.

Look at the Numbers!

by Donald J. Trump, 45th President of the United States of America

(after an interview with host Steven Inskeep aired on National Public Radio's Morning Edition, broadcast 12 January 2022)

It was too early to ask for fraud and to talk about fraud.1
Rudy said that, because of the fact it was very early with the —
because that was obviously at a very, very — that was a long time ago.2
The things that have found out3 have more than bore out
what people4 thought and what people felt and what people found.
When you look at Langhofer,5 I disagree with him as an attorney.
I did not think he was a good attorney to hire. I don't know
what his game is, but I will just say this: You look6 at the findings.
You look7 at the number of votes. Go into Detroit and just ask yourself,
is it true that there are more votes than there are voters?8
Look at Pennsylvania. Look at Philadelphia.9 Is it true that
there were far more votes than there were voters?

1 That would be 17 November 2020, when attorney Rudolph Giuliani told Judge Matthew Brann in federal court in Williamsport, PA, that two voters in Republican counties were not allowed to fix errors in their mail-in ballots, whereas voters in Democratic counties were: "The best description of this situation is it's a widespread, nationwide voter fraud," he said. 

“It’s a widespread, nationwide voter fraud,” Giuliani said. He accused local election officials of being part of a “little mafia” and preventing Republican Party observers from watching ballots being counted. He said only cities “controlled by Democratic machines” had problems, and “you’d have to be a fool to think this is an accident.”

But when Judge Brann asked him to explain why these fraud allegations were not mentioned in the lawsuit he was litigating, Giuliani acknowledged that "This is not a fraud case." This was not because it was "too early to talk about fraud"; indeed Giuliani had started talking about fraud earlier still, in his celebrated Four Seasons Total Landscaping address on 7 November, the day the election was called:

Thursday, December 31, 2020

For the Record: More Populism Hawley-Style

Buster Keaton in Steamboat Bill, Jr. (1928).


Sequel to my popular rant on the new most obnoxious member of the Senate (narrowly beating out perennial favorite Rand Paul, who's been looking a little fatigues):


Sunday, December 13, 2020

Supreme Irony

 

One more time: the conservatives on the Supreme Court are not our friends, but that doesn't mean they won't rule the right way when it serves their purposes. They have a good idea how to do it, for one thing: nominations master and Federalist Society Dark Lord Leonard Leo doesn't want to put people without a certain level of formal competence in these jobs, and he was never going to give us Rudy Giuliani or Judge Jeannine or Scott Baio, as might have happened if Trump himself were allowed to be in charge, or for that matter the kinds of clueless tyros Leo himself sometimes nominates as circuit judges.

And they were never going to overturn this election, because (1) there was nothing wrong with the election, and Trump's lawyers could give them no material to work with (Bush v. Gore was pretty terrible, but compared to this it was ready-mix concrete); (2) they don't owe Trump anything, as he seems to think they do, because it was Leonard Leo and Mitch McConnell that gave them the jobs, and any Republican president, as Steve was saying, would have complied; and (3) they don't have any particular reason to want him to keep being president, as there's not much he can do beyond embarrassing them with his continual hints that he bribed them—he hasn't done anything they want but nominate Federalist Society judges, to the point where they're down to about 23 vacancies in the federal judiciary out of a total of maybe 890 judgeships, so that while it may not be quite true that Trump has totally remade the judiciary, there isn't much more he'd be able to do in another four years. And they have little to fear from a Biden presidency, hobbled as he is likely to be by a difficult Congress (even if the miracle in Georgia happens). He certainly won't be pushing through a federal abortion rights statute, or taxing churches, or expanding the Court itself.

Sunday, November 29, 2020

Cruz Channels Lenin

 

Eleanor Roosevelt and Dorothy Height, 1960. Tell them the Republicans are the "party of the working class". Via Wikipedia.

I've long found it fun to say that American conservatives are the most doctrinaire Marxist ideological faction, in the sense of believing in the reality of class struggle, except that they want the proletariat to lose the war and give way to the permanent dictatorship of the revolutionary bourgeoisie instead of the more conventional other way around.

But I always meant it as a joke line, insightful but not meant to be taken literally, until I saw this from Rafael Theodore Cruz channeling Vladimir Il'ich Lenin here:

Really? 

Saturday, November 21, 2020

The Lyin' in Winter

 

Cheriss May/NurPhoto via Getty Images via Business Insider.

We're at this bizarre moment when Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossoff winning the Georgia Senate seats—both of them—suddenly starts to seem conceivable. One thing is those exit poll numbers from 3 November:

Washington Post.

Biden won just 30% of the white vote (up from 21% for Clinton in 2016), but that was enough, combined with the overwhelming preference of Black and Latino voters, if only because there were so many of the latter, testimony to the extraordinary work of Stacey Abrams and thousands of people like her getting out the vote in historic proportions (not just minority members but also anybody under 45, who preferred Biden by 53% to 44%). 

But some Georgia Republicans are blaming Trump for depressing white turnout with his attacks on ballot security, and may now be making it worse for the GOP Senate candidates by insisting that it's still his election the voters should be worried about

Thursday, November 19, 2020

Literary Corner: Rudolfo's Solliloquy

Via Jacobean Tragedies.

Just when America needed a new poetic voice, a sound out of Jacobean tragedy, violent and baroque—


I Can't Give You All These Affidavits

by Rudolph Giuliani

Now, I don’t know. You’re going to tell me
that sixty people are lying? They didn’t just
tell me this. They swore under penalty of perjury,
which is something no Democrat has ever done.

You don’t even ask Biden about this. You don’t
put them under penalty of perjury. He doesn’t
even get asked questions about it. He doesn’t
get asked questions about all the evidence
of the crimes that he committed. These people
are under penalty of perjury, the names that are
on our affidavit. They swear that they weren’t
allowed to carry out their function as inspectors.

Wednesday, November 18, 2020

Narratology: What Polling Data?

The Grand Havana Room, New York City.

Remember how we've learned that Paul Manafort passed a lot of confidential Trump polling information ("'topline' data, which included the results of internal polling including state, dates, generic, decided GOP, and other such numbers") to his Ukrainian confederate Konstantin Kilimnik, culminating on 2 August 2016, when Kilimnik flew in to New York in the early evening and met with Gates and Manafort (fresh from a 5:00 meeting with Trump and Giuliani at Trump Tower) at the Grand Havana Room at 666 Fifth Avenue (yes, Jared's white elephant building), where Manafort explained, at considerable length, his plan for achieving a Trump victory?

Kilimnik told Patten that at the New York cigar bar meeting, Manafort stated that they have a plan to beat Hillary Clinton which included Manafort bringing discipline and an organized strategy to the campaign. Moreover, because Clinton's negatives were so low [sic]-if they could focus on her negatives they could win the election. Manafort discussed the Fabrizio internal Trump polling data with Kilimnik, and explained that Fabrizio 's polling numbers showed that the Clinton negatives, referred to as a 'therm poll, ' were high. Thus, based on this polling there was a chance Trump could win. (Senate Intelligence Committee Report on Russian Election Interference, vol. 5)

And how Kilimnik relayed the stuff to various persons including their Russian patron Oleg Deripaska and some Ukrainian oligarchs, to the displeasure of Rick Gates, who didn't trust Kilimnik and didn't see the point?

I've struggled with wondering what exactly Russian intelligence might have been able to do with this information and what they wanted it for and found myself too ill-informed to think of anything that made any sense—it was all mixed up in my mind with the Facebook operation. So a few days ago I ran into something that's simple enough to be true, in a kind of summary by Rob Waldeck of material from his October book The Black Ledger: How Trump Brought Putin's Disinformation War to America—that it was simply a presentation of polling data

Sunday, November 15, 2020

Do you believe in magic?

Alfred Hitchcock, Rear Window.

 



You know what this is? It's the horse race metaphor, and the lack of practice in sober thinking. Of course people know perfectly well that all of the ballots have already been cast, and nothing that happens after the polls close is going to change them, but that's not what they see, as they're watching the returns on TV: they're experiencing a moment in which the situation is constantly changing, and one candidate is "pulling ahead" while the other one is "falling behind".

It's like the GIF above, where you read the turn of James Stewart's head as a response to a noise and the cut to the window scene as showing the source of the noise toward which he turned, the cause of his head turn—it's easy to understand that the two segments weren't really filmed at the same time, and what he's really turning toward is Hitchcock's instructions; but you have to think about it, and that isn't what a life of film watching accustoms you to doing—the normal thing is to ignore the editing and absorb the intended narrative.

A very stable genius like Donald Trump, who's always lived on the cusp between reality and media, who never quite thought he had even had an experience until he read about it on Page Six and literally became something like a billionaire by appearing on television pretending to be a billionaire, whose sense of self-worth is. by now completely tied to the concept of ratings, can't even be made to understand it's impossible for Fox calling Arizona to change the overall election results. But perfectly ordinary people, used to TV, may not try to understand it, absorbed as they are in the narrative of Trump getting stabbed in the back by the news network for which he has done so much, and won't listen if you try to explain it, not because they're too dumb but because they're too emotionally invested in the story.




Saturday, November 14, 2020

Literary Corner: Time Will Tell

Mark, Rothko, No. 6 (Yellow, White, Blue over Yellow on Gray), 1954. Via WikiArt.



This Administration Will Not

by Donald J. Trump

According to some estimates, a national lockdown
costs fifty billion dollars a day and hundreds of
thousands of jobs every single day. Ideally,
we won’t go to a lockdown. I will not go.
This administration will not be going to
a lockdown. Hopefully, whatever happens in the
future, who knows which administration it will be.
I guess time will tell, but I can tell you,
this administration will not go to a lockdown.


Heritage Foundation on 20 April guessed that an 8-week national shutdown would lower economic output by $2 trillion, which only comes to $357 million a day, and cost 14 million jobs from February's 152 million total employed, or 250,000 jobs per day. This was under the assumption that the only region of the country seriously affected by the coronavirus was the New York area, and that this would remain true. 

In the event, in the real world as opposed to Heritage's modeling factory, total US economic output declined at exactly that rate, for a total of $3 trillion in the second quarter of 2020, while the number of jobs declined by 25 million or nearly 300,000 jobs per day, without a national shutdown, so if Heritage's estimates were correct a national shutdown would actually have led to a small but significant improvement, but never mind that. 

Tuesday, November 10, 2020

Got Paranoia? Everywhere Except Pennsylvania


I Was Proved Fucking Right department:

HARRISBURG (KDKA) — For months, there has been talk swirling that if Joe Biden wins Pennsylvania, Republicans in the state legislature could bypass the popular vote and appoint electors who are favorable to President Trump....

On Friday, State Senate majority leader Jake Corman said Republicans will honor the wishes of the voters.

“Our role is to monitor the process, our role is to provide oversight and call out questions where they might need asked, but certainly want to stay with the tradition of the popular vote winner getting the electors,” Senator Corman said.

Corman says the vote is certified by the state and the governor appoints the electors.

He says the legislature will follow the law. (KDKA TV Pittsburgh)

Yes, some Republicans in the General Assembly are calling for a "legislative audit" of the election results to be completed before secretary of state Book—some sources say it's a "bipartisan call"


but they don't seem able to name any of the non-Republicans involved in the move, and others reporting the same occasion disagree:

Monday, November 9, 2020

Got Paranoia? General Services Administration

My screenshot from video via the Independent, 4 February 2017.

Can we please jail Emily Murphy, the GOP political hack running the General Services Administration, who has apparently decided to single-handedly kneecap the Biden transition?

The administrator of the General Services Administration, the low-profile agency in charge of federal buildings, has a little-known role when a new president is elected: to sign paperwork officially turning over millions of dollars, as well as give access to government officials, office space in agencies and equipment authorized for the taxpayer-funded transition teams of the winner.

It amounts to a formal declaration by the federal government, outside of the media, of the winner of the presidential race.

But by Sunday evening, almost 36 hours after media outlets projected Biden as the winner, GSA Administrator Emily Murphy had written no such letter. And the Trump administration, in keeping with the president’s failure to concede the election, has no immediate plans to sign one. This could lead to the first transition delay in modern history, except in 2000, when the Supreme Court decided a recount dispute between Al Gore and George W. Bush in December.

Which ended after the Supreme Court intervened on the Bush campaign's instance to stop the recount of Florida ballots, and Vice President Gore conceded on 12 December:

Saturday, November 7, 2020

Literary Corner: Mr. Vice President, Say a Few Words

 


The neighborhood erupted at about 11:30 this morning, shouting and singing and pot-banging, and for a second I couldn't imagine what was happening, even though I had the radio on and the network had broken into "Wait Wait Don't Tell Me" with the news. 

I think I'm really starting to accept that it's time to be happy about this, just for its own sake, as Jordan started saying, because it feels like a liberation and a lightening, like a rock rolled off our collective chests, a Happy Day. Regardless of the pain and embarrassment we will continue to feel and the way things won't get altogether better, regardless of what President Biden will or won't be able to do (or even want to do, as some of the young folk wish to remind us), regardless of whether the criminals are brought to justice, regardless what goes down from here on in, it's just a good feeling. We will get over Trump, we will be done with this particular anomaly. We're already over him! Poof! He's deflated, whizzing around the room for an instant and dropping to the floor!

One of the things that's been distressing me since Tuesday is the sense that that isn't happening, the thing I'd been really looking forward to, the moment when his followers would suddenly come to realize that he's nobody, a loser, an ill-stuffed shirt, the moment when they lose their faith in him. 

Friday, November 6, 2020

Worser Angels

 


You probably thought we just went through a national election, but it turns out what really happened was Most Americans were sending a message in a bottle, and for some reason which will go unexplained they were addressing it to David Brooks's information bubble so he could get a better idea of what's going on in Most Americans' lives and share it with his readers ("What the Voters Are Trying to Tell Us"):

Yup, I wanted a grand rebuke, too. I wanted Trump demolished by 10 points. But elections are educational events. Voters are not always wise, but they are usually comprehensible. They know more about their own lives than we in our information bubbles do, and they almost always tell us something important.

The first thing we heard from most Americans — since Joe Biden’s popular vote victory seems all but certain — is that Donald Trump is unacceptable. We live in a divided, dug-in nation, but millions more white evangelicals voted Democratic in 2020 than in 2016. Many people voted against partisan predilections to remove a man who is a unique menace to the foundations of this country. That is no meager accomplishment.

The second thing voters told us is this: Separate church and state. We’ve long had political polarization in this country and we still will. But over the last few years polarization has transmogrified into something worse: a religious war.

Even the worser angels of David Brooks's nature are so much better than ours, it's no surprise that the better angels are totally insufferable.

We don't at the moment know by what percentage Biden has beaten Trump, other than that it wasn't by 10 points, as David Brooks would have wished, but we do know how to interpret it, in a way that David Brooks coincidentally might approve of. It's enough to prove that nobody wants Donald Trump to be president, but not enough to prove that those of us who wanted Donald Trump not to be president were right. I hope that's clear.

Thursday, November 5, 2020

Winkin', Blinken, and Nod

Majority Leader Palpatine here. Via TigerDroppings.


So it's clearly at least 290 electoral votes for Biden-Harris where I'm sitting, plausibly 306—with the Republicans filing one stupid lawsuit after another and dueling videos in which they're mobbing election centers in Detroit chanting "Stop the count!" and in Phoenix "Count those votes!" because they can't make any effort at all toward coherence any more. The cable outlets, and the dueling Nates Cohn and Silver, struggle to create some suspense on matters that just aren't suspenseful.

Might as well go visit Axios and learn what "people familiar with the matter" and "a source close to Mitch McConnell" have to say on the subject of what happens starting Monday or so over the next four years, which begins with McConnell asserting his intentions of dictating Biden's cabinet choices:

Republicans' likely hold on the Senate is forcing Joe Biden's transition team to consider limiting its prospective Cabinet nominees to those who Mitch McConnell can live with, according to people familiar with the matter.

Naturally since it's Axios the focus is on where that leaves the celebrities, in particular Democratic senators who ran for president this year (gossip writers have been pushing Warren for treasury secretary and Sanders for labor, in the apparent desire that for the first time in US history anybody would know the names of the treasury and labor secretaries), even though Biden already made it clear he wasn't interested in nominating any Democratic senators, with good reason—it's a really good idea to have some Democratic senators who know what they're doing in the Senate.

That and "radically progressive" nominees who are "controversial with conservatives"—read African American women like Susan Rice (ideal pick for State, among other possibilities), and Stacey Abrams. Instead McConnell is said to be asking for 

Wednesday, November 4, 2020

Goat Rodeo notes

Goat Rodeo Roundup, via the Isaac Brock Society.

This guy collapsed two of our scariest preoccupations on Trump—his cognitive disability and über-authoritarian inclinations—into one:

It's really true. In Trump's mind, the thing he sees on TV, the "state of the race" expressed as a percentage, is more real than the things he can't see, the ballots, and he can't bring himself to understand that the election itself stopped last night—if that's true how come the numbers keep changing? He can't bear the fluidity, and he feels as president he ought to be able to put a stop to it.

By putting his lawyers on it, of course, as he told the world on Monday:

Tuesday, November 3, 2020

Curate's Egg

 

Right Reverend Host: "I'm afraid you've got a bad Egg, Mr Jones!"; The Curate: "Oh no, my Lord, I assure you! Parts of it are excellent!" "True Humility" by George du Maurier, originally published in Punch, 9 November 1895, via Wikipedia.

Jordan in comments yesterday insisting that, even though Bret Stephens must have been wrong about what happened in the 2016 primary campaign, something did after all happen, and it was important:

that the 2016 Republican primaries were a fundamentally transformative moment in American Conservatism, like the Counter-Reformation, with Trump as Martin Luther -- suddenly, the conflict between scripture and practice wasn't tenable any more, and the voters rebelled (for real, unlike the fake, astroturf "rebellion" of the Tea Party period, but borrowing the same frameworks), followed by the politicians, who were dragged hopelessly along until they awakened to the possibilities that the Trump movement had opened and became true-believers (like Goebbels and other Third Reich figures).

I'm not so crazy about the Reformation analogy, with its implication that Trump had an idea (let alone 95 of them). I've used the Hitler analogy, of course, with a different emphasis, thinking about the surprise the German conservatives got when the idiot to whom they'd offered the chancellorship turned out not to be controllable. 

Thursday, October 1, 2020

Begone, before somebody drops a house on you, too


There are basically two ways of overthrowing a reasonably established government: through violence or the threat of violence—the continuum from coup d'état to revolution in which one power is overwhelmed and replaced by another; and through the Machtübergreifung, as Hitler called it, the "snatching over" of the existing power apparatus and then transforming it according to existing forms. I don't think it gets sufficiently recognized that Hitler, or Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin, didn't exactly break any laws in their accessions to absolute power (except to the extent that they used law-breaking ascribed to their enemies, the Reichstag fire that provided Hitler with his excuse to declare an entirely legal emergency, the apparent terrorism of the apartment-house bombings crisis that Putin was charged by Yeltsin with managing, which made the otherwise unknown vice president a national figure who could win an election). Hitler's brownshirt thugs didn't play a role in pushing him into the chancellery; that was the conservative aristocrat politicians, Field Marshal von Hindenburg and Erbsälzer Franz von Papen (the title, "hereditary salt maker", dates to the 13th century, when the Papens were one of 48 families of Werl in the Westphalian Basin entrusted with the monopoly on mining the local salt), who found him more sympatisch than the Social Democrats. Putin spent 12 years shoring up his position by legal means before he began having the proper authorities rewrite the law to give him a vehicle for exercising permanent power.

And why did Putin have Paul Klebnikov and Anna Politkovskaya murdered in 2004 and 2006? And what were Hitler's brownshirts for? To make them look like strongmen as they achieved their aims in a less risky way, as Teri Kanefield writes:

Because being overestimated is how strongmen and wannabe strongmen appear invincible. It makes them feared and respected. It elevates their stature, which gives them power.

The revolutionary and the coup artist seize power, directly, because they have power. The Machtübergreifer bashes his way into the power that is there by being a conman, convincing you he has the power, bluffing and shouting, with more lawyers than thugs, asserting the legality of what he's doing. How many times, indeed, have you heard Trump or his agents explaining some action by claiming that he's "allowed" to do whatever it is, evading the question of what he's hoping to accomplish?

Trump loves you to see the kind of shit he can get away with, but he's pretty careful, in fact, to wrap it in legalisms, often bogus, but enough to keep him looking as if he cared. From the first day in office, when he showed us how he could force his press secretary to tell a ridiculous lie about how many people were on the Mall, he was also getting some henchman of his to get somebody in the GSA to reverse the ruling that Trump was not entitled to hold the lease on the Old Post Office building he was operating as a hotel, in the interregnum between administrators.

And when he and Sessions and Miller decided to contravene US and international law by refusing to hear asylum claims from Central American migrants, they didn't simply do it: they created an entirely new interpretation of the law (section 1325 of the Immigration and Nationality Act), which criminalizes crossing the US border at an undesignated location, applying it to asylum seekers for the first time, allowing the Border Patrol to throw them into criminal detention and herd their children into concentration camps.

When courts stopped Trump from doing the things he wanted to do—banning Muslims from entering the country, building the border wall on the Pentagon's dime, eliminating the DACA program, and so on—he obeyed the judges, but sent his people back to the drawing board to come up with another way of doing it, or allow him to claim he'd done it. The final version of the Muslim ban wasn't a Muslim ban at all, just a pointless difficulty imposed on an almost random selection of people from "shithole" countries, but it looked to supporters and opponents as if he'd shown he had the power to get his way regardless. They're still trying to curtail the census, they're still trying to cripple the Postal Service, but they don't just march in and bash a few heads; they always deploy the lawyers, and try to wear their enemies down. 

Which is why I can't quit insisting that he can't overturn the election, meaning, precisely, that he doesn't have the power—unless we give it to him.






I might add it would be nice to remember how ceaselessly Trump has insulted those people, and how ceaselessly he's mocked their power. If you want to foment a real coup, of course, you don't alienate the military or the premier national law enforcement agency, but even if it's just a bogus coup you shouldn't think you can count on them just because they love their hierarchy. The Pentagon publicly rejected Trump's idea of deploying active duty servicemen in quelling the George Floyd protests in Lafayette Square and elsewhere, a national guardsman denounced the propaganda version of how the Lafayette Square event was handled, and the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff felt compelled to apologize for putting himself in a position where it looked as if he was taking Trump's political side; and the brass have been sending out signals just this week that they're not prepared to be used in the election:

Several Pentagon officials said there could be resignations among many of Mr. Trump’s senior generals, starting at the top with General Milley, should troops be ordered into the streets at the time of the election.

The Air Force chief of staff, Gen. Charles Q. Brown, the officials said, would also be unlikely to carry out those orders. In the days after the killing of Mr. Floyd in police custody, General Brown released an extraordinary video in which he spoke in starkly personal terms about his experience as a Black man in America, his unequal treatment in the armed forces and the protests that gripped the country.






That's the main thing. His army of pudgy incels and superannuated bikers and DHS goons can't stop us from counting the votes, and I don't think when it comes down to it the Supreme Court can either. We have to say, "Rubbish, you have no power over me!" 


Friday, September 25, 2020

More Prognostication

 

Pearl White shooting an episode of "The Perils of Pauline", via Palisades Interstate Parks Commission.

Really heartened to see the decision by Judge Lucy Koh in San Jose reversing the Commerce Department's crazy attempt to cut the 2020 census head-count off a month early. Not just because it means that in all likelihood we will get the most accurate count possible, but because it openly recognizes the bad faith and inadequate grounding of the original decision, clearly made under intense pressure from the politicals,

Justice Department attorneys have attempted to present speeding up the count as a way for the Census Bureau to meet the Dec. 31 legal deadline for reporting results in light of Congress not giving the bureau more time.

Koh noted, however, that explanation "runs counter to the facts."

"Those facts show not only that the Bureau could not meet the statutory deadline, but also that the Bureau had received pressure from the Commerce Department to cease seeking an extension of the deadline," the judge wrote in the order, which cites multiple internal emails and other documents the administration was required to release for the lawsuit. (NPR)

and characterizing it as "arbitrary and capricious".

In this it goes along with Chief Justice Roberts's decision on the DACA program, which made the same complaint about the Trump administration's attempt to curtail the program, upending hundreds of thousands of lives for no real reason, or rather no real reason the administration was able to express. This is an important point to remember: while we often think of tyranny in terms of cruelty, but the element of arbitrariness—the tyrant doesn't need to offer a reason for anything he does—is equally important and always has been to the discussion, arbitrariness as opposed to rule of law. 

We can't expect Roberts to be concerned with cruelty, he's absolutely a Republican, but we can hope he will oppose arbitrariness, because it's bad for business. This is my take on Roberts, anyway, ever since his original 2012 decision on the Affordable Care Act, in which poor people in the states whose governments objected to expanding the Medicaid program were thrown under the bus but insurance companies and healthcare providers were preserved: he maintained the parts of the act that provided stability and profitability to the giants and their shareholders, as long as it didn't involve a lot of taxpayer dollars, though in a tricky way that would encourage Republicans to keep working on a "repeal and replace" project.

Thursday, September 24, 2020

Got Paranoia? Barton Gellman's Nightmare

Via Robert Graham. 

So yesterday was the day of Barton Gellman's nightmare 3 November scenario in The Atlantic ("The Election That Could Break America"), for the series of developments that will lead to a worse crisis than you've successfully imagined:

  • Biden wins the election, but not in anything like a landslide, thanks in part to the suppression of Black and youthful votes, and, crucially, not so the networks can call on the night of 3 November itself, as the in-person votes get counted and the vast number of mail-in ballots take longer—perhaps Trump is actually well ahead in the count as we're going to bed, in a case of the "red mirage" reflecting the difference in the way Democrats and Republicans are voting in the pandemic;
  • Trump refuses to concede when the election is called, claiming vast fraud in the mail-in vote, as he's been preparing to do in speech after speech since 2016;
  • an army of Republican lawyers slows the count down to glacier speed, contesting every postmark and signature, and around the most contested states disorder spreads, beginning with 2000-stye "Brooks Brothers riots" and devolving into competing demonstrations with fistfights at the margin;
  • Trump declares an emergency, and DHS forces take custody of the uncounted ballots;
  • by 35 days after the election, on 8 December, when states are required to submit their lists of electors, certain Republican state legislatures where Biden is now ahead in the still unfinished count, under cover of the suspicion of fraud spread by Trump forces over the past four years, move to name their own sets of Trump-loyal electors, as nothing in the Constitution prevents them from doing (the tradition of naming the electors on the basis of the state's popular vote is one of those norms we haven't been able to stop Trump from breaking, enshrined in most state laws, but in this horror movie, the legislatures can overcome that)—think Texas, Georgia, Florida, Arizona, but also North Carolina, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania;