Sunday, May 22, 2016

Douthat on the Great Facebook Massacre

Image via Michael Ferry at First Draft.
So apparently deep in the subterranean regions of the Facebook world, the News Curators toil, unseen and unappreciated, writing their headlines and teasers for the trending topics in the upper right of your timeline, and a little bit more. It turns out that the Trending Module algorithm doesn't work quite as well as advertised, or, more to the point, as well as Twitter's, and it needs to be goosed from time to time, and one of the things they do is to "inject" stories that fail to trend on their own into the mix, from the front pages of ten different big-time sources (CNN, the New York Times, BBC, and the like), or just stories that seem so serious that it's embarrassing not to have them (the disappearance of Malaysia Airlines flight 370, the killings of the Charlie Hebdo staff, Syria stories, #BlackLivesMatter). They're also empowered to switch a story from its coverage in a less respectable source like RedState or Breitbart to a more trustworthy one, or deactivate it altogether, if not enough sources are covering it.

Perhaps because their backgrounds are more literary than techie, they're not regarded as real Facebook people but "disposable outsiders". They're not employees but contract workers, like proofreaders or Uber drivers, supplied by a temp agency, a dozen or more squeezed into makeshift quarters in the New York offices. Though they have fancy degrees from Ivy schools and résumés from the New York publishing scene, they are not invited into the Facebook world. If there's an 8:00 happy hour for the proper employees, the News Curators aren't invited; they keep working, into the night. The turnover is pretty high. They believe that their real function is to train the algorithm—one day it will know how to do their jobs and they'll all be fired.

Saturday, May 21, 2016

Harping, Carping, and Barking: Hooey, baby




Jonah Goldberg, back from a National Review Cruise on the Danube:
NR Cruises are special things. They are filled with friends of National Review, often lifelong friends. No one who hates the magazine plunks down that much hard-earned money to spend a week drinking, eating, and touring with its writers and editors (and other passengers who are fans of the magazine). As a result, nearly all disagreements are like family disagreements.
It's so cute how he feels the need to explain why there weren't any passengers who hate NR. Strictly speaking, I suppose it would be more correct to say nobody on board hates NR except the staff, who don't have to pay, and the undercover reporters from Harper's, which if nobody has ever done that before I'd like to say I'm totally available for the next cruise, if they'd spot me a wardrobe. Just kidding!

It's going to be aboard the MS Nieuw Amsterdam, taking seven days to circumnavigate the island of Cuba, mostly at a safe distance from its Communism-tainted territorial waters—

Friday, May 20, 2016

The Golden Chain


Barbara Stanwyck in Alfred E. Green's Baby Face (1933), via An Honest Ghost.
Shorter David Brooks, "The Fragmented Society", New York Times, May 20 2016:
I'm so clued in that Yuval Levin name-checks me in his new book, and yet there are things in that sucker even I didn't know, on virtually every page, although all the examples I can think of seem to be things I say myself all the time, like political polarization in Congress seems to be on the rise since its period of decline in 1910-40 and income inequality, diminishing from 1925 to 1970, has also begun to rise, and immigration, slowing from 1910 to 1975, has been going up. These factors, as opposed to the Internet, which arrived later, have caused us to become a fragmented society. Levin argues that our politics are based upon nostalgia for a less fragmented time. Conservatives lament the new lack of social cohesion and liberals complain about the inequality. Both are wrong, in Levin's view, because that's just the way things are nowadays and we can't do anything about it. These phenomena are the downsides of choices we have made for perfectly good reasons, like the desire to enjoy more flexibility, creativity, and individual choice, as when we buy cheap products around the world, and so there's nothing to be done. Therefore what we do will have to be the opposite of what we have done in the past. Unlike the policies of the Nixon, Carter, Reagan, Bush, Clinton, and Bush administrations when all this unfortunate fragmentation took place, we will have to adopt subsidiarity, devolving more power and choice from the federal government to local authorities. This is all quite true, but I'd like to say that I disagree with it in part. I think it is important, as we are taking away power from the federal government, that we should also give more power to the federal government, for example by instituting radical new ideas like national service and OMG look at the time and I've run out of space.
Levin's book is The Fractured Republic: Renewing America's Social Contract in the Age of Individualism (Basic Books, 2016), and I don't know if it's as much of a mess as the way Brooks portrays it, although it's inevitable that it should suffer from that cognitive dissonance between the fatalistic declinism of the conservative narrative (nostalgia aside, you can never have it as nice as it used to be) and the need to claim that your prescriptions are going to do the patient some good (you'll be as good as old!)

Brooks's basic argument, that he has thought of a way to disagree with Levin's argument even though Levin mentions him by name, is contained in paragraphs 14-16 of his column:

Friday cheap shots: Baseless Rhetoric

Image via the Toms River Patch.
Now we know what the price of Christie's Trump endorsement was: cash (via WNYC).
At a rally of about a thousand people at the armory in Lawrenceville, New Jersey, Thursday, Governor Chris Christie introduced the guest of honor, saying: "Let me bring you the next President of the United States, Donald Trump!"
But this was no ordinary political Trump rally. Tickets cost $200 a person, and the money was used to pay off Christie’s debt left over from his presidential campaign.
WNYC's Matt Katz says that with about 1,000 people attending the rally, that went a long way toward wiping out Christie's $250,000 debt. And that wasn't all. 
"Before the event, Trump did a roundtable fundraiser that cost between $20,000 and $25,000 a person, There were about 18 people there," Katz said. "That money was actually used to pay off Bridgegate lawyers that the state Republican party had hired after they got hit with subpoenas more than two years ago. There’s a half-million dollars owed to those Bridgegate attorneys. And now, thanks to Trump — who six months ago campaigned against Christie by saying he knew about Bridgegate — that debt is mostly paid off."
And what Trump gets out of it is a representative of the "conservative establishment" he can victimize in public, to his (pained) face:

Thursday, May 19, 2016

Douthat, just saying: His angst evident in his hair

Macy's bone structure is completely different, but he could capture some of the psychotic character of Bill Kristol.
Monsignor Ross Douthat, Apostolic Nuncio to 42nd Street, does something really peculiar ("The Dying of the Third-Party Dream"):

Of all the strange images of this strange campaign, I find myself particularly struck by this vision: Mitt Romney, pacing alone in one of his many houses, his angst evident in his faintly mussed-up hair, placing pleading phone calls to Republican politicians asking them to run as a third-party candidate against Donald Trump.
That bizarre, existential one-act play — “Conversations About Trump,” opening Off Broadway, with Josh Brolin as Romney and the voice of William H. Macy as John Kasich — is apparently where the quest for a conservative alternative to Trump and Hillary Clinton ran into a wall.
I'm an idiot about celebrity news, so it didn't occur to me that that bit was meant rhetorically, and I was quite disappointed when the link led not to further information on this imaginary play but to a dumb insider article about Republicans in the Washington Post, by Philip Rucker and Robert Costa, the GOP's earnestly savvy ambassador to the wider world. And Dr. Google couldn't uncover any information about Conversations about Trump either.

Wednesday, May 18, 2016

For the record: #FeelTheDerp

Hey, it's not Latinos that made the mistake!
Wishful thinking is not generally effective thinking. Accepting something you noticed in somebody's blog ("Sanders has a significant lead among Hispanic voters and other races" in a May 5 poll), and then translating it into a more majestic sentence that means something totally different ("Bernie has won most Latino votes to date") does not get you closer to the truth but further away. Not checking the link, or not noticing that there is no link, doesn't help either. It is likely that Clinton has received considerably more total Latino votes than Sanders to date, and on the other hand it is likely that Sanders's current popularity in the Latino community is nearly as high as Clinton's and could be even higher, and it's really hard to judge how true either is, because the exit polls are not perfectly reliable and the samples of ethnic minorities within broader samples are just too small. Storify from this morning below the fold:

Tuesday, May 17, 2016

There's more than one way of being ripples

Lost Hills, California. Photo by Chloe Sorvino/Forbes.
Another day, another dateline. Another little chunk of David Brooks's life. Stung by his failure to realize that Donald Trump was going to be the Republican presidential nominee this year, he's ripped himself yet again out of the bourgeois strata where he generally spends the the big chunks, and gone where he feels least comfortable, out into the pain, as his preferred approach to leaping across the chasms of segmentation, "One Neighborhood at a Time".  We all have some responsibility to do that.

Thus in early May he seems to have visited decaying Pittsburgh, where he chatted with school principals and factory owners, and the whitewater rafting country of West Virginia, where I could see no evidence he ever wandered as far from his room as the hotel's bar.

Today it's Lost Hills, California, where I'm afraid he's not going to find a lot of Trump voters; underemployment is no problem, because everybody has a job on the 70,000 acres of Paramount Farms, world's largest vertically integrated supplier of pistachios and almonds. Nor are there a lot of broken families:

Monday, May 16, 2016

Monday Trump Dump


Image from Reddit via Giphy.
Trump responds to allegations from British prime minister:
“Number one I’m not stupid, I can tell you that right now. Just the opposite. I don’t think I’m a divisive person. I’m a unifier.” (Via Independent)
Well, then, that settles that. Who would know better than the man himself? He's not so sure whether he's divisive or not, but he's positive on the stupid issue. No pussyfooting or equivocation, no "I have no recollection of being stupid" or "it depends on what the meaning of 'stupid' is". Just boldly acknowledging the fact.

Sunday, May 15, 2016

Douthat on what bigots can teach us

Mayor Sadiq Khan of London (newly elected in the "biggest individual mandate in British history") poses for a selfie in a lovely, typical London crowd. Photo by Daily Mail. 
In what seems to be a kind of collateral damage from the Trump campaign, Monsignor Ross Douthat, apostolic nuncio to 42nd Street, has really gone full troll; there was that crazed column a few weeks ago where he urged us to pay more attention to neo-reactionaries, monarchists, Falangists, and advocates of Empire (cafeteria-style, just picking up on the good ideas and leaving the anti-Semitism in the steam table), and today he's giving us the generalized version, "When the Wrong are Right".

It's all about those Trump voters, of course; the undereducated, underemployed white working class. Douthat accepts the conventional wisdom that those are the people putting Trump ahead in the Republican primary contest, and accepts the premise that they are a bunch of racial bigots, and then asks:
What happens if the bigoted sometimes get things right?
I'd guess for those questions on which bigots are generally right, non-bigots tend to be right too, so that the bigoted view isn't that important. It doesn't make much sense to imagine questions where you'd only be able to get a correct answer from a bigot in the dictionary sense, that is from a
person who is obstinately or intolerantly devoted to his or her own opinions and prejudices; especially :  one who regards or treats the members of a group (as a racial or ethnic group) with hatred and intolerance
since he or she, being unreasonably prejudiced by definition, is clearly less likely to be right on any particular point where others are wrong than a non-bigot, whose mind is subject to change in the face of evidence. How do you like that Jesuitical logic, Ross?

A question that needs to be re-addressed here is whether the Trump voters really are more or less equivalent to the undereducated, underemployed white working class at all, which a lot of us including me seem to have tacitly accepted without wondering if there's any evidence for it; because Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight has done some modeling from exit poll data that calls it into question:

Saturday, May 14, 2016

For the record: Is Hillary Clinton the Worst Human Being in the Universe?

Photoshop by somebody who doesn't like her, but it doesn't have that effect on me.

[Update: There used to be a Storify sequence here involving a Daily Caller story, but it's vanished. It probably included the following


But I think the Dean Leh tweet I was responding to has been deleted]

What's unsourced in the Daily Caller story is the story. There are all kinds of links to secondary remarks and interpretations, studding the paragraphs like Christmas ornaments, but the stipulations that add up to a serious-sounding allegation and the $100 million from Middle Eastern governments aren't linked at all. Based on the reporting at Politifact, the actual sum would be somewhere between around $18 million and $75 million, alongside between $31 million and $75 million or so for the Australia-Canada-Netherlands-Norway-UK-Germany. There's no way of estimating a narrower range.

Since the "issue" became a thing in early 2015, the Foundation has stopped accepting contributions from any government other than those of the six white-people countries listed above, and worked to make its reporting of donations more transparent, for what it's worth.

The idea that the Foundation is a corrupt party seeking to enrich itself like Dr. Evil or something irritates hell out of me. You can complain all you want about the quality of its work, particularly in Haiti, or the neoliberal bias for market solutions that they have in common with donors like Bill Gates and Mark Zuckerberg (for my money dudebro icon Pierre Omidyar is far worse in that respect, having done real, serious harm), but I don't see how you can accuse Bill Clinton of anything worse than trying to top Jimmy Carter by being bigger and flashier. It's vulgar, but it's not mean.

And the same goes for the Arab governments, really, which were trying to make themselves look like full and mature members of the Big Nations club; they were encouraged to donate through the Clinton Foundation because Bill made it so easy, the way the nouveaux riches of the Internet economy like to donate online, doing their due diligence with online organizations like Charity Navigator; and because Bill made it so pleasant, the same way he's always gotten anybody to do anything, starting with voting for him, by schmoozing with them and giving them the impression he thinks they're really smart and generous and good people. In a happier context—if not for the violent and dishonest context of the Bush wars—it could have been a really good thing, and in itself it really wasn't exactly bad.

The vast right-wing conspiracy and its pseudo-leftist enablers, however, especially at the Investors' Business Daily, have been determined to find something wrong with it, most notably in the enormous piece by David Sirota, Andrew Perez, and Matthew Cunningham-Cook of June 3 2012 that tried to persuade the world that those Arab government donations were a bribe to Hillary Clinton as secretary of state, to entice her to fill up their arms depositories with "biological and chemical weapons": or as the famous Jeanette Sandernista put it,

Their case depends on a pretty convoluted misreading of the evidence, which consists mainly of online State Department documents from the end of the Bush and beginning of the Obama administrations.

US companies sell arms to foreign governments through two routes: through the Pentagon as "foreign military sales" (FSM), and directly, making the deal and then seeking authorization from the State Department, as "direct commercial sales" (DCS). The latter at least are supposed to be publicly divulged, and from fiscal years 2007 through 2009, for some reason historians may some day wonder about, the State Department DCS notices were a lot more detailed than they had been before or would be after; in particular, providing information on the specific breakdown of sales in category XIV, Toxicological Agents, Including Chemical Agents, Biological Agents, and Associated Equipment.

Which sounds like chemical and biological weapons of mass destruction, but isn't at all. Since the Chemical Weapons Convention of 1993 (ratified under President Bill Clinton), the State Department is not actually permitted to authorize the sale of any chemical or biological agents for use in the prosecution of international war, but it can allow the sale of category XIV(d), "tear gases and riot control agents" for use in domestic law enforcement, together with various kinds of techniques for defending your country against chemical, biological, and nuclear weapons, including equipment for detecting them, medical countermeasures, and technical data, and subcategory XIV(f), "Components, parts and associated equipment specifically designed or modified for military operations and compatibility with military equipment" for defense against chemical and biological weapons, which last constitutes the bulk of most nations' requests. It is illegal for US companies to sell tear gas for use in international war, but not to sell it for "normal" police work, just as they are also allowed to sell it to US police departments, but for foreign sales they have to get a license from the State Department, and the same goes for equipment used to defend yourself against WMD.
Prior to Clinton’s tenure at State, Congress and the public could see some of the details of Category 14 exports. Those interested in scrutinizing the sales were supplied a breakdown of the transactions into separate categories such as “tear gases and riot control” and other wares classified as “medical countermeasures” like vaccines to protect against exposure to chemical and biological warfare. But as Clinton’s State Department increased its export approvals, it also stopped providing a breakdown of such exports. Key details are now effectively secret.
Which is true also for the reports from 2006 and earlier. Can we blame Hillary Clinton for that too?

So anyway the reports from 2007 through 2009 give you specific dollar figures for these things for all the countries that were permitted to make purchases from US manufacturers in class XIV, and you can see exactly how much the client governments spent on tear gases and riot control agents—30 to 40 countries each year—over the course of the period, from $150 for Kuwait in 2007 (they spent $37,010 the following year) to $5,850,000 for Algeria in 2009 (up from $5,500 in 2007).

That number for Algeria seems like a lot. The only figure even close is the $5,135,300 spent by Peru in 2007, although Canada spent nearly $9 million on riot-control agents over the three-year period; France, Mexico, Chile, and Turkey over $3 million each; and Israel almost $3 million. To Sirota et al., it seemed like evidence of some kind of criminality on Hillary Clinton's part as secretary of state:
Algeria received just $2,110 worth of State Department authorizations in the chemical and biological weapons category in fiscal 2008 [correctly, $22,110, including zero chemical or biological weapons; it was all XIV(f)]. But the next fiscal year -- 80 percent of which was under Clinton’s tenure -- the country received more than $6 million worth of such Category 14 authorizations. Five-point-eight million dollars of the authorizations were for items classified as “tear gases and riot control agents.” The next year, the Algerian government gave the Clinton Foundation $500,000. Amid the Arab Spring revolts in 2011, Algerian security forces used tear gas on protesters in the capital.
The implication being that (1) Clinton recklessly let the Algerians have these colossal quantities of tear gas which Condoleezza Rice had sensibly denied; (2) the donation to the Clinton Foundation (for Haitian earthquake relief) was a kind of gratuity for the service; and (3) they must have known they were going to need it when the Arab Spring blew up two years later, even though it came as a huge surprise to everybody else, including the Tunisian and Egyptian masses who did the actual work.

Do I need to explain in detail what's wrong with these?

1. The difference in allocations from one year to the next means nothing. Chile goes from $350,070 in FY 2008 to $3,337 in 2009, and Singapore from $21,525 to $20; over the same period Denmark goes from $43,350 to $1,018,540, though it didn't give a dime to the Clinton Foundation. Some countries have radically different budgets year to year on this, others are steady shoppers like Greece ($27,070 in 2007, $55,250 in 2008, $55,561 in 2009).

2. The job of the secretary of state isn't to decide whether the country is a good country or not, but to certify whether it can legally receive the weapons it wants to buy, under the US law governing such matters; the default is to approve everything, since it's American companies, with American employees, that are making whatever it is, and the only reason for rejecting a sale of riot control agents will be if, in the secretary's estimation, they are likely to be used in an international battlefield situation instead of "properly", in domestic law enforcement, as the law requires. They certainly shouldn't have permitted sales of tear gas to Israel, which uses tear gas copiously and sometimes lethally in Gaza and the West Bank and on the Lebanese border, but there's no more excuse for denying to Algeria than Canada (or more unfortunately Turkey, which uses tear gas on Kurdish populations inside national borders). Neither Rice nor Clinton actually made these decisions, as a matter of fact; they were too mechanical for the secretary's attention.

After 2009 the State Department went back to the old practice of not breaking the numbers down into subcategories, so there's no way of telling how much money was authorized for tear gas from FY 2010 onwards, just as for 2006 and earlier, which turns other parts of the Sirota et al. argument into unverifiable nonsense,
Secretary Clinton seemed to pursue contradictory policies where Egypt was concerned. Autocratic governments have used chemical weapons to suppress internal dissent, and in 2011, Clinton announced as part of her support for an international treaty that outlaws the stockpiling of chemical weapons, she would “reaffirm our commitment to finish the job” of eliminating such stockpiles. But U.S. approvals for the exports of Category 14 weapons to Cairo increased even though Egypt was one of only three countries whose governments have taken no action to sign or ratify the treaty.
(The other two countries are North Korea and South Sudan. Israel, unmentioned in the IBT article, has not ratified. Syria suddenly ratified in 2013, under US/Russian pressure, and Somalia also did. Angola and Myanmar ratified in 2015.)

Again, the Chemical Weapons Convention, a product of the Bill Clinton administration, is aimed at the elimination of chemical weapons of mass destruction, though it includes provisions on the use of riot control agents in international conflicts. Hillary Clinton as secretary had almost no role in setting the policy, I don't see how she could, but it's not contradictory anyhow. Tear gas continues to be legal, under US law, in the US, Mexico, Norway, and Trinidad and Tobago, and it's legal in Egypt too. But in point of fact there is no way of knowing whether the permissions for tear gas purchase went up after 2009 anyway, because the State Department numbers don't say how much went for XIV(d) as opposed to XIV(f) and the other categories. Total category XIV sales to Egypt were 1,893,927 in 2008 with zero tear gas, $1,258,250 in 2009 with $458,090 worth of tear gas, to $1,709,049 in 2011 with no specifications for class (d)—can't find anything at all for 2010, actually—and $1,727,239 for FY 2012, so at this point I can only suppose that they're completely making things up (there are some outlandish-looking numbers credited to the American Chamber of Commerce in Egypt, which would hardly have supplied them, and which I can't find referenced anywhere else).

And then—
Her State Department cleared Egypt to continue purchasing arms the U.S. government classified as "toxicological agents,” a broad designation that included chemical and biological weapons, as well as vaccines -- this, at the very moment Mubarak’s forces were unleashing one toxicological agent, tear gas, against protesters demanding his ouster.
—trying to suggest that it might have been sarin or god-knows-what is extremely irresponsible; if it wasn't tear gas or the equivalent, it wasn't a toxicological agent at all, because it couldn't have been approved. And finally,
In 2011, ABC News reported that Egyptians protesting against Mubarak were attacked by the regime’s police with tear gas made by an American company called Combined Systems Inc. (Tear gas is considered a chemical weapon under the Chemical Weapons Convention, and is banned in wartime.) That firm is part-owned by the Carlyle Group, which paid the Clinton Foundation for a Bill Clinton speech in 2012 though the Clinton Foundation did not disclose it at the time. In all, the Carlyle Group has donated at least $350,000 to the foundation, including a fee for a Hillary Clinton speech months after she left office in 2013. 
Given that her standard fee seems to be $225K, and Bill's a good deal more, that last number would appear to be ridiculously low, as if it were the Clintons giving the break to Carlyle rather than the other way around.

Just no. I would totally be much happier with the world if Bill and Hillary would not take money from the Carlyle group, but the attempt to suggest that their speaking fees were blood money for Hillary's work in getting illicit chemical WMD into Egyptian army hands (they sell to Tunisia, Yemen, Germany, Netherlands, India, East Timor, Hong Kong, Argentina, Thailand, Trinidad and Tobago, Cameroon, and Sierra Leone, alongside Egypt and Israel, probably because there aren't really that many tear gas firms) is about something that really didn't happen.

And about the other countries in question (Bahrain, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and UAE) they had even less information, or, more precisely, none.

I'm not saying, you know, that Hillary Clinton is a lovely and virtuous person, I don't really think I know, but every time you look at an allegation like this it turns out to be utter bullshit.

Update 5/19:Turns out the fierce Jeanette Sandernista isn't exactly an engaged voter at least in the US:


2007-09 class XIV(d) sales authorized by the State Department, by country (because I have some kind of OCD and couldn't stop doing it as long as the data held out):

FY 2009: $13,980 to Afghanistan, $5,850,000 to Algeria, $80,583 to Australia, $13,351 to Bermuda, $578 to Burkina Faso, $3,592,408 to Canada, $3,337 to Chile, $30,404 to Colombia, $1,018,540 to Denmark, $261,250 to the Dominican Republic, $635,794 to Ecuador, $458,090 to Egypt, $293,750 to France, $55,561 to Greece, $360,000 to Guatemala, I'm sorry to say, $61,525 to Guyana, $24,202 to Haiti (which was of course taking money from the Clinton Foundation, not giving it), $479,250 to Honduras, $115,040 to Hong Kong (!!), $1,050,532 to Israel, $345 to Jordan, $16,675 to Lithuania, $476,350 to Mexico, $52,000 to New Zealand, $248,952 to Panama, $176,130 to Peru, $20 to Singapore, $59,880 to South Korea, $12,945 to Sweden, $906 to Thailand, $26,027 to Trinidad and Tobago, $920,423 to Turkey, and $2,161 to the United Arab Emirates.

FY 2008: $3,083,237 to Argentina, $193,698 to Australia, $650 to Bahamas, $18,795 to Bahrain, $3,738 to Belgium, $2,736 to Brazil, $1,635,298 to Canada, $350,070 to Chile, $6,000 to Congo, $43,350 to Denmark, $810 to El Salvador, $55,250 to Greece, $7,085 to Guyana, $130,571 to Hungary, $2,607 to Iceland, $197,316 to Israel, $37,010 to Kuwait, $37,336 to Mexico, $65,175 to Papua New Guinea, $291,168 to Peru, $800 to Romania, $21,525 to Singapore, $3,500 to Slovenia, $254,405 to Tunisia, $619,290 to Turkey, $167 to UK, and $21,460 to Uruguay.

FY 2007: $5,500 to Algeria, $63,956 to Argentina, $56,045 to Australia, $34,650 to Bshamas, $493,300 to Bahrain, $13,420 to Belize, $293,660 to Bolivia, $3,520,448 to Canada, $2,792,000 to Chile, $248,917 to Colombia, $220,245 to Dominican Republic, $138,246 to Ecuador, $17,124 to El Salvador, $3,200,000 to France, $27,070 to Greece, $285,000 to Guatemala, $2,785 to Guyana, $13,068 to Hong Kong, $35,250 to Iraq, $1,654,536 to Israel, $150 to Kuwait, $20,000 to Lebanon, $7,882 to Lithuania, $2,308 to Malaysia, $3,367,155 to Mexico, $1,386 to Netherlands, $2,360 to Netherlands Antilles, $59,553 to New Zealand, $6,516 to Norway, $141,870 to Panama, $5,135,300 to Peru, $46,600 to Sierra Leone, $27,080 to Singapore, $49,484 to South Korea, $5,250 to Sri Lanka, $27,956 to St. Lucia, $9,392 to Trinidad and Tobago, $1,653,818 to Turkey, $17,829 to Turks and Caicos, $26,651 to the United Arab Emirates,

You won't believe this one stupid trick the Washington Post used to get clicks

You can't use a simple algorithm to decide which way is left; you have to apply some real-world conteztualized knowledge.
Seeing some chatter originating in the Wapo this morning about the startling new Trump strategy of "running to Hillary's left", wooing the Sanders voters:
“Now, I’m no fan of Bernie Sanders, but he is 100 percent right,” Trump told a crowd [in Eugene, OR] this weekend. “He is 100 percent right: Hillary Clinton is totally controlled by the people that put up her money. She’s totally controlled by Wall Street.”
It's obviously worth asking yourself to what extent this is "left", as opposed to typical Republican populist posturing—how it's different from Ted Cruz railing against "crony capitalism" and "corporate welfare" and the "Washington cartel". What's Trump's proposal? You know, for not being controlled by Wall Street, other than claiming that he's as rich as Lloyd Blankfein, and therefore incorruptible, just like um wait a minute.

Friday, May 13, 2016

And today in international Trumpery



New Zealand Prime Minister John Key, reacting to news reports last week in the Panama Papers leak on how New Zealand has become a haven for international tax cheats and money launderers (the Mossack Fonseca law firm from which the Panama Papers come has a prominent and profitable office in Auckland), responded with bizarre accusations that notable charities—Amnesty International, Greenpeace, and the International Red Cross—are somehow culpably involved in the same corruption, and that a Green MP, Mojo Mathers, is the holder of a foreign trust.

Then on Wednesday afternoon, addressing a question from Mr. Shaw, co-leader of the Green Party, as to why he refused to apologize for these allegations, he shouted until the speaker ejected him from the house. Today's international conservative movement, people, showing the way of Burkean civility and restraint.

I started thinking of it as a kind of modest preview of President Trump. Trump's not going to be a prime minister, of course, so he won't be hanging around in Congress, except there's that annual State of the Union address, nominally presided over by the Speaker of the House:

Don't mean a thing


The singer and actress Audra McDonald showed up on the TV talking, nothing wrong with that, she knows how and all, but I felt the need to listen to her sing something. So there's this Ellington tune, with the New York Philharmonic.

Wednesday, May 11, 2016

Keep hope alive!

Via Tracy Viselli/Feminists Will Kick Your Ass.
Mr. Pierce is out there concern-trolling Hillary Clinton, or that's really the wrong way of putting it, because his concern is plainly sincere (he's glad to say that she's "the only sane and plausible choice available" and that the added benefit of electing a woman president is a "genuinely big honking historic deal"), and sort of meaningless in that he doesn't seem to doubt she'll win in any case, but the effect is trollish all the same:

as a seeker of votes, as an applicant for the world's most powerful temp position, for the second time in a row, she's proving to be something of a mediocrity. I realize that the results last night in West Virginia will not mean very much down the road. They are products of skewed demographics and the playfulness of a number of voters who would not vote Democratic in the fall if you paid them in gold to do so. I realize that a large part of the difference between her winning margin in 2008 and her losing margin Tuesday night can precisely be measured as the difference between running against the "black guy" and having worked for the "black guy." I also realize that she only lost the delegate count to Bernie Sanders 16-11, which does little to slow her grim and inexorable march to the podium in Philadelphia this summer. But, dear god, she really leaves West Virginia with a very clean clock.
How clean? Well, Jesus, Charlie, 234,027 voters showed up (in an open primary) to vote for a Democrat, giving Bernie Sanders 51% of the vote to 36% for Clinton (the bulk of the balance going to local attorney Paul T. Farrell, Jr., representing the zombie coal industry, insisting if you keep pretending it's not dead it might turn out to be alive). Whereas in 2008, there were 359,910 voters in the Democratic primary splitting 67% for the same Hillary Clinton and 26% for young Barack Obama. That latter is what I would call a dear-god clock-cleaning. Whatever happened to young Obama, by the way? Did he find some more friendly career opportunity where he wouldn't have to depend on that vote-getting?

Tuesday, May 10, 2016

Cheap shot: Pat McCrory


Why is this governor smiling? "I'm Pat McCrory, and I approved forcing this so-called 'trans man' into the ladies' room in North Carolina because it says on his birth certificate he's a lady!" Authentic image from the StandWithPat website. Not sure what they meant to accomplish with it. H/t Tengrain.

Instant Grits

One of my late mom's (it's four years this month, still miss you daily) best jokes, belated Mother's Day tribute:
Shopper: I'd like some grits, please.
Attendant: Hominy?
Shopper: Oh, two or three...
True Grits by NibbleMeThis.
David Brooks has put his humble-failed-political-journalist baseball cap back on the rack and shown up in his world's-greatest-education-expert mortarboard, for the first time in weeks or months ("Putting Grit in its Place", New York Times, May 10 2016):
We all know why it exists, but the grade-point average
No, you mean like any time you have a set of integers between 0 and 4 you can calculate the mean and—
is one of the more destructive elements in American education.
No wait, I think I don't know why it exists. Can we go back over that, Prof?
Success is about being passionately good at one or two things,
It is? In what sense? Is it a limit, like it's not OK to be passionately good at three things, or that's the best you can hope for? Is it what high schools or colleges should be aiming at, graduating kids with a minimum number of passionate skill sets, or is it a choice the kids should be making, in contradistinction to aiming at a high GPA, say? Is it a definition of success in school, or is it about preconditions for success in their future lives, that if they don't come out of school with those passionate skill sets they will end up failures as adults?

Monday, May 9, 2016

Nick gives himself a sad

H/t PJ for the idea.

Buster Keaton and Roscoe Arbuckle in Oh, Doctor! (1917), via SilentWeeks.
Shorter Nicholas Kristof, "A Confession of Liberal Intolerance", New York Times, May 7 2016:
Golly, folks, we progressives are supposed to be so open and accepting, so how come conservative intellectuals in our academic institutions are forced to use separate drinking fountains and bathrooms and summer camps? I've been thinking about this because I wrote about it on Facebook. 
That last bit is practically verbatim:

I’ve been thinking about this because on Facebook recently I wondered aloud whether universities stigmatize conservatives and undermine intellectual diversity. The scornful reaction from my fellow liberals proved the point.
He tried saying something about it without thinking, and that didn't work out, so now he's looking at this alternative approach. What strikes me here is something I've never noticed about Kristof, which is that he's really not very good at thinking; his idea of thinking is to assert that something is bad, enumerate many examples of its badness, and declare that something needs to be done about it, for which he may or may not have some specific suggestions which may or may not be of some use; there's no dialectic between, for instance, different ways of approaching the problem.

Sunday, May 8, 2016

A Staggering Work of Heartbreaking Something

Portrait of Don DeLillo learning that he has fans in the corridors of power. Just kidding. But it's a nice picture. Via Alchetron.
This deeply annoying David Samuels profile of Obama's youthful deputy national security advisor for strategic communications in the Times Magazine—

The Aspiring Novelist Who Became Obama’s Foreign-Policy Guru

How Ben Rhodes rewrote the rules of diplomacy for the digital age.
—has been arousing a lot of comment in my Twitter timeline, though very little to none here in our quarter of Left Blogistan, and I feel as if I ought to be reporting on it, even though I'm not quite sure why it's worth noting. Fact is, I'm not quite sure what it's attempting to accomplish, because it seems to be doing two different stories, somewhat overlapping, one about what a gigantic crush Samuels has on Rhodes (they both love the novelist Don DeLillo! It's Kismet!) and the other about how he thinks Rhodes has led some kind of Benghazi-like conspiracy to hide the Truth About the Iran Deal, which is that Obama started negotiating it with Ayatollah Khamenei before the election of President Rouhani, as evidenced by
the letters that Obama covertly sent to Khamenei, in 2009 and in 2012, which were only reported on by the press weeks later.
OK, a conspiracy, if there was one, to delay the truth about the Iran deal for several weeks on two separate occasions in the years before it was negotiated, because I don't know but it looks to Samuels like proof that Rouhani and Republican Guard factions in Iran aren't really at war with each other and thus the Iran deal is really a huge trick being played on somebody by somebody else. Perhaps. Or I may be reading it wrong, because frankly the prose is so simultaneously purple and clichéd, from its first DeLillo name-check—

Saturday, May 7, 2016

Annals of Derp: Jonah's MacGuffin Theory

Via Amy Sterling, who's a little worried about Jonah's diet: "heart attack waiting to happen". Seriously, you need to ease up on the brandy and beef suet—and Froot Loops too— and pay some attention to the vegetables.
The derpetology practice here at Rectification Central too often focuses on rebarbative matters like statistics or money or earth science with which your correspondent himself is, to tell the truth, not all that in love or even very familiar. If it's just David Brooks misreading a chart, that's one thing, but frequently we are obliged to deal with the work of real scientists—or economists, which is even worse, imaginary scientists or scientists of the imaginary—and I really have to wonder why I'm working so hard. Can't some qualified person take over?

So it's pretty refreshing when we get Jonah Goldberg turning to film theory, riffing off a 2013 piece by the so-called Ace of Spades, "The MacGuffinization of American Politics".

The Ace's original complaint was the not very original thought that American politics has been turned into entertainment, which he believed had suddenly happened with the election of Barack Obama as president:

Friday, May 6, 2016

Brooks's Imaginary Problem

Alfred Hitchock's The Lodger, 1927. Via somebody's Tumblr.
Shorter David Brooks, "Clinton's Imagination Problem", New York Times, April 6 2016:
Hillary Clinton seems very nice, but her ideas for revitalizing the lives of Appalachian coal miners whose livelihood has disappeared are just the same old stale Democratic nostrums, like trying to create new jobs to replace the lost ones. Instead, she needs to consider some fresh approaches such as that of David Cameron's Conservative Party in Britain, of reweaving the social fabric through relationship counseling and parenting classes. I mean who needs a job when you can get a social reweave?
So he's returned from his excellent adventure in West Virginia, though it remains unclear whether he ever did manage to get out of that hotel room; the only West Virginia experience he discusses is reading the local papers (Charleston Gazette-Mail) online.

From which he learned, of course, that things are pretty dire in West Virginia, as he probably might have suspected already. Indeed he might have been afraid to leave his hotel room, under the impression that the entire population consists of fiendish drug addicts, which would be an exaggeration. As he did earlier this week, he offers some evidence that he recently did go outdoors in Pennsylvania for some reason, and there, certainly, the drug addicts are pretty much wall-to-wall:

Thursday, May 5, 2016

Cheap shots: Latino outreach

Like, he hasn't changed his mind, but is vice president a man's job exactly? Image via NewsMax (sorry).
Buried lede department

This paragraph down near the bottom of the Times report struck me this morning: Is Trump selecting a VP candidate?
Still, in some quarters, reconciliation between Mr. Trump and his onetime critics is underway. Senator Marco Rubio of Florida, who clashed bitterly with Mr. Trump before dropping out of the presidential race, has had multiple phone conversations with him recently, according to Republicans close to Mr. Trump. (Aides to Mr. Rubio declined to comment.)
I wasn't the only one. The Trump-Rubio (Short Hands and Little Heels) ticket could actually be a thing, The Hill was saying, though by afternoon Newsmax was claiming Dr. Ben, the leader of the search team, had ruled it out. Why???

I believe it's because Donald's got a different strategy for getting that all-important Hispanic vote:

Poor Jonah

Update: Hi MBRU fans, thanks Blogenfreude!

Pieter Aertsen, The Egg Dance, 1552. Rijksmuseum Amsterdam, via Wikipedia.
Goldberg is so guileless, really, it's almost kind of sweet:
Donald Trump almost never uses the language of traditional American conservatism, with its emphasis on classically liberal notions of limited government, constitutionalism, individualism, and free trade. He prefers to talk about “strength” and “winning” while vowing to restore the “greatness” of yesteryear through his indomitable will.
The language of traditional American conservatism, dear boy, has never won an election and never will, because the voters don't give a shit about it, unless you mean when you're talking about their taxes, and they're the kind of voters (as we mostly are, unfortunately) who look at their paystubs and don't realize that the bulk of what's deducted from the gross pay is insurance for old-age health care, pension, and unemployment, and the amount dedicated to cash for welfare clients and foreigners vanishingly tiny.

Wednesday, May 4, 2016

Turnout tribulations

Harold Lloyd and Bebe Daniels in Young Mr. Jazz (1919), from Shari Lobdell.
"If the turnout is high, we win," quoth the Bern, and he keeps saying it, with the implication that all the nonvoters out there are just waiting for some explosion of progressiveness to stimulate them into showing up at the polling place, an attractive idea, certainly, to me; the indifference to politics of the many always seems to me like the main thing stopping this from being democracy, and the solution should be to offer them something worth voting for (which happened, clearly, in the relatively high turnout of November 2008).

Only by Super Tuesday you could see pretty clearly it was not true in the present case, and it began to really irritate me that Sanders kept on believing it, but I kind of stopped trying to prove he was wrong because he didn't seem to be wrong in a very interesting way—not so much a pattern he was missing as no pattern at all—and trying to get a properly numerical grip on it was really difficult, or boring, or both.

Then as the Indiana results started coming in I got interested again, with the exit polls suggesting there was some kind of surge among young voters, with an unusual 47% of the total younger than 45, Was the Sanders prediction starting to come true at last?

We interrupt this program

We're grieving over the Big Lose of Big Cruz, but life must go on!

Cartoon by Steve Benson, via the West Central Tribune of Willmar, Minn.
New from the Sherman Oaks Review of Books:
  • A letter from the imaginary editor of the even more imaginary Rancho Cucamonga Review of Books, C.W. (Crinkle Wrap) Charles, in which your correspondent had a collaborative hand
  • A follow-up on that infinite number of monkeys that typed Hamlet some time ago—those guys were geniuses, whatever happened to them?
  • A heroically individualistic eggplant recipe from the novelist and philosopher Ayn Rand
  • And much—some—more!!
"Farewell Cruz", via YouTube. I'm not watching it. Just saying.

Tuesday, May 3, 2016

A choice of embarrassments

Endless Wall Trail over New River Gorge near Lansing. Via LiveAndLetHike.
So David Brooks ("The Choice Explosion") seems to have started his project of atoning for his failure as a journalist and changing the way he does his job, venturing out into that vast dark forest where the Trump voters lurk to get "socially intermingled" with them, trying to find out, as Trump himself would put it, "just what in the hell is going on". At least his column today has a dateline, just like a Friedman column—"Lansing, W.Va."

But he hasn't actually started on any of that social intermingling yet, though it looks like a location well supplied with undereducated and underemployed white guys—not even with a taxi driver.

Sunday, May 1, 2016

The real neo-monarchist

Still dead. Image lifted from an openly fascist website (in Spanish).

Stung, no doubt, by the shrieks of derisive laughter that greeted his essay on why our political thinkers should pay more attention to the thinking of neo-reactionaries (not the racism, of course, just the good parts), Monsignor Ross Douthat, Apostolic Nuncio to 42nd Street, has now issued his "Well, liberals are the real neo-reactionaries anyway" piece. Or liberals are the real neo-monarchists at least. Or "the center-left and center-right rather than the ideological extremes" in "a kind of moderate-middle enthusiasm for crown government, as a means of escape from congressional dysfunction and endless right-left war". Or those identical-twin princes Barack Obama and George W. Bush:

Executive-branch Caesarism has been raised to new heights by the last two presidents, and important parts of the country have responded by upping the ante, and — like ancient Israelites in the Book of Samuel — basically clamoring for a king.

West of Eden: Green Zone update

Sadrists invading the legislature. Photo via Al-Jazeera.
Faithful readers had a chance to learn about this weekend's startling news from Baghdad a month before it happened (as blogfriend MBouffant showed up to notice in comments there), or sort of, when I reported the beginnings of a mass joint Sunni-Shi'a protest movement threatening to break into the Iraqi capital's high-security Green Zone, where foreign VIPs and local politicians are normally able to cut their deals without fear of getting blown up or kidnaped. Or contemplating the faces of thousands of victims of their corruption and irresponsibility.

And now they're in the Green Zone, after I'd more or less thought the whole thing must have fizzled out already, and they're attracting the attention of the New York Times. They've busted in in the hundreds and perhaps thousands, mostly nonviolently and perhaps with the collusion of sympathetic security forces, and rioted inside the Parliament itself, breaking some furniture. So you can say you heard about it here first, if you did.

I seem to be virtually alone in regarding this as a positive development. Atrios and BooMan are sadly rolling their eyes and shaking their heads, and with good reason, over this new evidence of the endless chaos caused by George W. Bush and his companions. I agree it's that, but I think it's something more, as I've been trying to say...