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| Via fivethirtyeight.com. |
That's overnight. Biden has pulled well ahead of Sanders in North Carolina in their simulations, just ahead in Virginia, virtually even in Texas for Super Tuesday, and well ahead in Missouri, Mississippi, and Florida a week or two later. A couple of days ago Biden seemed likely to lose in his own home state. Not today:fivethirtyeight now gives the best chance of winning the primary campaign before the convention to Nobody. 59% compared to Sanders, the runner-up at 27%. Is that at all clarifying?— Swami Vivi-ka-Newman (@Yastreblyansky) March 1, 2020
I can't imagine there's much of a chance for Elizabeth Warren (or Buttigieg or Klobuchar, let alone Bloomberg) to take the nomination in Milwaukee in July—don't even have an idea how you'd go about calculating it—but I hope she has lots and lots of delegates anyway, for the leverage it'll give her, and women, in the writing of the platform and selection of a nominee. That scenario that looked like a hopeless but entertaining daydream last Wednesday is now something people need to be planning for, and some are. Fivethirtyeight isn't saying it out loud in their coverage, so you may have read it here first (Martin, who I've been neglecting lately, has more to say).
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