From Townhall. I wanted to preserve it for posterity because it's so wrong that they may end up scrubbing it themselves in embarrassment. The folks at Townhall appear to have persuaded themselves that the spirit of Ronald Reagan is taking over the entire European continent, and it's not happening:
1. The CDU/CSU (Christian Democratic Union and its Bavaria-only sister party, Christian Social Union) has not won yet, big or otherwise. Votes are only 50% counted as I write (about an hour after the Townhall story came out).
2. If the CDU/CSU is able to govern without a coalition, it will be because it has to; because it no longer has any allies in parliament. One election result that is already clear is that their traditional partner, the FDP (Free Democrats, liberals in the 19th-century sense) is coming in under the 5% threshold and will get no seats at all.
3. As a ruling group, if they have a parliamentary majority it will be of a single seat (compared with a 21-seat majority in the current coalition with the FDP). That sounds like the opposite of a big win to me. Their ability to play rough will certainly be hampered.
4. It's not really a conservative party in the American sense in any case, and has not been since the end of World War II at least. It backs one of Europe's most generous welfare states (one of the best single-payer health systems, good government pensions for all, six-week paid vacations, and much much more) and is irrevocably committed to non-nuclear renewable energy. We associate these things with Germany's Social Democrats and Greens, but the CDU/CSU has never dared to pull back on them, if it even wants to. Some of those socialist programs (health care, free public education) go back to the first reunification and the überconservative chancellor Otto von Bismarck.
5. Merkel likes Obama better than Bush. She may be conservative, aber hat sie doch auch Geschmack.
Yup. It was Reuters that ran the "romp to victory" headline, and now Reuters is first to run projections according to which CDU/CSU has not won a majority and will be unable to rule without a leftwing coalition partner. The news agency seems not even slightly humiliated, but they should be.
Very poor analysis in my opinion. All articles in Reuters and elsewhere have made the likelihood of CDU needing a "grand coalition" with SPD, whether it had just over or just under 50% of the representatives. What everyone is seeking to express is the scale and significance of the CDU victory, and of Merkel's personal vindication.
ReplyDeleteAlso, the majority would make a big difference in that she could negotiate the coalition from a position of strength, and walk away if necessary; without it the SDP has the better hand.
DeleteI don't see how it's a victory at all. The apparent death of the FDP rebalances the situation in favor of the left. If CDU had captured all the FDP seats it would be different. Merkel's personal vindication is of no interest to me as I do not think of politics as a sport the way most journalists "at Reuters and elsewhere" do. I meant mainly to respond to American conservatives who seem to think it's *their* victory. That said, thanks for commenting! Glad to argue with someone well informed, and glad to lose if I can learn something.
ReplyDeleteOne thing you're absolutely right about, Anonny, is the unanimity of the press in acclaiming the mighty victory. I did not expect that. Some even claiming Merkel *wanted* to lose the majority so the SDP would have to own the "reform" legislation she wants to push to take more money away from citizens to give to bankers.
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