Monday, October 14, 2019

He sure as hell misjudged Lindsey-Woolsey

Funeral Monday for five Syrian Democratic Forces fighters killed in battles against Turkish-led forces. Photo by Delil Souleiman/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images, via The New York Times.

When I was trolling the trolls yesterday with my apocalyptic prediction

I wasn't expected it to be fulfilled before nightfall (I mean nightfall in New York, not Syria), but that's what happened, more or less.


So there we have it, the makings, conceivably, of a pretty major war. Not only does Turkey have those Sunni Arab proxies with it, but it's liberating still more extremist ISIS fighters from the detention camps that were under Kurdish supervision. Not only do the Kurds have Syrian government protection, but that comes with Iranian, and perhaps Russian backing. If Iran is formally allied with the Kurds, that comes with some interesting possibilities, if you look at the map of Greater Kurdistan: a direct land route from Iran to Syria and Lebanon through the Kurdish-controlled north of Iraq. Hope Israel enjoys that prospect!

Map by Central Intelligence Agency, 1992, via Wikipedia.
The major war would be between Iran and Turkey, with Saudi Arabia backing Turkey at least financially, and Russia, which has worked very hard to remain on good terms with both Iran and Turkey, staying out of it. Indeed what's far more likely than a major war, I imagine, is a major Russian démarche to calm the situation once a few thousand people are dead and the ISIS prisoners have finished escaping, setting up a (sort of) secure zone not so different from what the Turks originally wanted, and it won't be as difficult as usual, since Syrian Kurds, now dependent for survival on the Assad regime, will have no voice.

The US will have no voice either, however much Lindsey Graham may howl

because Trump has thrown it away. The idea that Erdoğan gave any thought whatever to what Lindsey will do makes me laugh out loud.

Trumpy is in fact swinging into action or violent inaction using his favorite tool—announcing on Twitter that he was "fully prepared to swiftly destroy Turkey's economy" but for now he just wants to raise the tariff on Turkish steel, of which Turkey wasn't expecting US buyers or anybody else to be buying much anyway since April
Market sources surveyed by Fastmarkets... broadly agreed that the prospects for steel exports out of Turkey remained poor at the end of April, with no recovery likely soon because of trade barriers erected by authorities in the country’s principal outlet markets.
and break off the ongoing trade talks, so these "sanctions" are essentially "Do what the US Congress wants or I'll maintain the status quo you dirty bastards!" I assume what he means, or whoever is babysitting at the moment (Navarro?) means, is that since he's taking a personal hand in the business, Congress can stop messing around, and this is basically aimed at them, which will succeed in protecting Turkey from further sanctions, whatever Graham and the other Republicans protesting their undying loyalty to our brave Kurdish allies may say. Trump has pretty terrible judgment, but he sure as hell has never misjudged Senator Graham, strangely enough, perhaps because they're kindred spirits in spite of such different personalities.

The EU sanctions of "limiting" arms sales to Turkey don't tbh sound very serious to me either, apparently under resistance from the Trumpy "populists":
While not a major arms exporter to Turkey, Budapest is wary of doing anything to anger Erdogan, who last week warned that he would “open the gates” and send 3.6 million refugees to Europe if it did not back him. Hungary has refused to take in people fleeing Syria’s eight-year-old civil war and blocked an EU statement last week criticising Turkey, two diplomats said.
But the long and short of it is that Trump has indisputably lost his first war, against the terrorist Da'esh he was just claiming he'd defeated, which will now continue to exist and wreak terror here and there and maybe retake some territory. Out of sheer stupidity and pigheadedness and inability to understand there's anything he doesn't understand.

Our friend Bethesda1971 notes in a pretty powerful Kos diary that Trump has done exactly what Hillary Clinton was falsely alleged to have done with regard to Benghazi, issued a "stand down" order and carelessly condemned friends to death. I hope people reflecting on the illegal behavior for which he is being called to account in the House will reflect on what a really terrible president he has been in every sense, and see that the illegalities are the chargeable part of a whole pattern of reasons why he should not hold this office.
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