October Surmise

This is kind of weird (and gets much weirder below the fold)—a letter to President Biden issued yesterday from 30 members of the House Progressive Caucus urging him, very respectfully, and without any cheap bothsidesing of the respective positions of Ukraine and Russia, to work toward a negotiated settlement of the Ukraine war, mainly reacting to the scarily increased risk of nuclear conflict:

Given the destruction created by this war for Ukraine and the world, as well as the risk of catastrophic escalation, we also believe it is in the interests of Ukraine, the United States, and the world to avoid a prolonged conflict. For this reason, we urge you to pair the military and economic support the United States has provided to Ukraine with a proactive diplomatic push, redoubling efforts to seek a realistic framework for a ceasefire. This is consistent with your recognition that “there’s going to have to be a negotiated settlement here,” and your concern that Vladimir Putin “doesn't have a way out right now, and I'm trying to figure out what we do about that.” 

We are under no illusions regarding the difficulties involved in engaging Russia given its outrageous and illegal invasion of Ukraine and its decision to make additional illegal annexations of Ukrainian territory. However, if there is a way to end the war while preserving a free and independent Ukraine, it is America’s responsibility to pursue every diplomatic avenue to support such a solution that is acceptable to the people of Ukraine.

I wouldn't sign it myself—looks like a signal of doubt and disagreement among Democrats that I don't think it's helpful for Russians to see, and then I'm pretty confident that whatever negotiation with Russia is possible right now is being done anyway, not just by US but NATO as a whole, maybe with Türkiye (formerly known as Turkey) in the lead—but it's really hard to object to the substance of the thing, such as it is ("Mr. President, please do what I think you're doing"). But why, and why now?

And then, some hours later, comes the following from Progressive Rep. Mark Pocan:

It isn't now, but four months ago. It only came out now, for reasons that are mysterious to the congressman. 

This actually makes some bizarre sense. The letter describes the situation in a way that's more appropriate to four months ago, when the Russians were slowly but ineluctably advancing and Ukrainian food exports were completely blocked—

Russia’s recent seizure of cities in Ukraine’s east have led to the most pivotal moment in the conflict and the consolidation of Russian control over roughly 20 percent of Ukraine’s territory. The conflict threatens an additional tens of millions more worldwide, as skyrocketing prices in wheat, fertilizer and fuel spark acute crises in global hunger and poverty

—completely unlike now, when the wheat has begun to ship out (the result of some very successful negotiation led by the Turks) and Ukraine seems to have a real prospect of victory following the delivery of the HIMARs and the amazing successful Ukrainian moves on Kharkiv and Kherson and elsewhere in the Russian-occupied southeastern regions. The fear of nuclear escalation wasn't as great as it is now, but it was real.

So it seems likely that it really was written in July, when Ukraine was losing, as Pocan said. So what happened?

A new tweep of mine has an idea:

Or:

Somebody with access to a draft letter released it and the PC decided to act like it was on purpose until the blowback was enough that they had to release a clarifying statement.

— The Fig Economy (@figgityfigs) October 25, 2022

Two weeks before an election, as V.V. Putin stirs up nuclear anxiety as hard as he can (threats to use nukes over the past month followed by today's obviously bogus warning that Ukraine is going to use a "dirty bomb", which sounds to me like blowing up the Zaporizhzhia plant in order to rain fallout on—um—Ukraine along with a lot of Russian soldiers? Which sounds like something V.V. Putin might possibly be contemplating, but his actual military strategy at the moment is pure electricity blackmail, giving up the hope of conquering territory in the hope of bullying Ukraine into negotiations by cutting off everybody's electricity as winter approaches.

And, curiouser and curiouser, as Fox News seems to have become Putin's US headquarters, the Carlson-Greenwald duo stoking nuclear fears and calling for immediate negotiations too. And would-be Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy threatens to defund the war if Republicans win the election.

You see what I'm saying? This is a dirty trick, a Republican-run attempt at an October surprise, likely orchestrated from Russia, but in the same form as the 2016 one in which the rogue New York FBI agents forced Director Comey to release the bogus news about Huma Abedin's laptop. Here, "they" (whoever they may be) have forced the Progressive Caucus to release the letter in the aim of pushing those younger voters into staying home, even voting Republican, from existential fear.

(Which would mean, btw, that the nuclear threat really is bluffing—Putin's strategy for winning the war now is to get Republicans elected. He's used it before!)