Gaza Update

 

Israeli journalist Noga Tarnopolsky said something that especially struck me on BBC, on the attitudes among the families of the hostages still held in Gaza, in reference to Antony Blinken's latest visit: that they trust President Joe Biden, because they're confident he's doing everything he can to bring the hostages back, and that they don't feel that way about their own prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu.

I'm glad to hear somebody does. I'm not myself ready to give up on Biden in this context, but it's really not easy and not getting easier. What I've supposed could be his plan, to get a Palestinian state out of this horror, still looks delusional to seasoned observers, who understand that there's less appetite in Israel for such a thing than ever, especially inside the government, now completely dominated by parties that have been absolutely opposed to it since their deadly enemies of the Israeli "center-left" signed the Oslo accords (though I wonder if the inclusion of center-left ministers in the war cabinet makes a difference to that), but also in a general population that gets its information from extraordinarily biased TV coverage; and my own idea of how it might work could be ridiculously baroque.

Starting with the observation that there is no direct action Biden can take that will save a single life in Gaza, because of the situation inside the US as well. Biden cannot threaten to cut off military aid to Israel because Congress is not going to allow it. Lobbying groups like AIPAC make sure it doesn't happen. American Jews, overwhelmingly liberals and Democrats, may not like it, but we can't do much about it; it's not our money that makes the difference. And putting qualifications on support for Israel is a new and untested position for Democrats; for traditional Democrats in Congress, likely the party majority, it's hard to imagine questioning Israel on anything. 

And, most important. Netanyahu really doesn't care: he's the first Israeli prime minister to take open sides in a US election (for his old Boston private equity colleague Mitt Romney in 2012, and for Donald Trump in 2016 and 2020), because he's confident it will never threaten American support for any government he puts together. Whatever Biden does has to deal with this lack of the leverage Americans had on earlier Israeli governments.

The concept as I see it centers around the hostages, whom everybody in Israel wants returned home, though few have any idea how it's to be done. Netanyahu and the military seem to hope they can capture them all in fight, as if Hamas fighters wouldn't be using them, wherever they are, as human shields—and of course as IDF has shown for the last three months they don't know where they are, or where the Hamas command is either, for that matter (they're better at finding Hamas commanders in Lebanon than in Gaza). They're more likely to kill hostages themselves, in the indiscriminate bombing—Israel's acknowledged killing at least 18, and Gaza authorities have given the number as 57. If they're hoping to frighten Hamas into releasing hostages, the message ("We won't kill you all until after you've surrendered them, so you'd better surrender them now") isn't very encouraging.

The hostage families and their friends have a simpler idea, which is to trade Israeli hostages for Palestinian detainees and prisoners; some even call for a total exchange, with the slogan "All for all!", remembering the captured Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit, who was ultimately exchanged for 1,027 Palestinian prisoners, including criminal convicts accused of the murder of Israeli civilians. That's an approach that has already succeeded in Gaza as well, as you know, with a move in which Biden, working with interlocutors in Qatar (where the US has considerable leverage thanks to its enormous military base), played an indispensable role, and the Netanyahu government not so much (beyond putting an end to the process when they refused to extend the necessary cease-fire in early December). For the one war aim on which all Israelis agree, it's Biden 105, Netanyahu 0 (or a substantial negative number, depending on how many have died under IDF bombing). 

And negotiation worked all the way back in 1982, when Israel bought time from the Palestinian Liberation Organization by enabling them to get out of town to Tunisia, which is why the Jerusalem Post is advocating the same technique now with Hamas.

We keep being told, "You don't realize how traumatized Israel is" by the October 7 attacks, but that shouldn't be an excuse for accepting bad judgment, and an Israeli war policy that must lead to an increase in Hamas power (Hamas's deep unpopularity before the war began is now completely reversed, both in the West Bank and Gaza; instead of being seen as a corrupt and vicious oppressor they are seen as the only force trying to defend them against Israeli brutality), especially when there are Israelis, as represented by the hostage families and the leftist press, with a better idea. Biden is basically the only figure in the US representing that better idea, for what it's worth, as Nathan Newman has recently been pointing out:

In many ways, the Biden administration has been the one force putting any limits on Israel’s attacks on the Palestinians and taking real steps to advance long-term Palestinian goals for self-determination.... 

Most importantly, Biden made it clear early on in the conflict that the U.S. would oppose any expulsion of Palestinians from Gaza, teaming up with the Jordan King - possibly the strongest relationship Israel has in the Middle East - to emphasize the point. Many in the Israeli leadership have made it clear that ethnic cleansing of the Palestinians out of Gaza was their goal, so this clear red line by the Biden administration has been critical for avoiding a repeat of the Nakba expulsions of 1948 that left millions of Palestinians refugees in other countries - and barred from reentry by Israel....

The Palestinian Authority has endorsed Biden’s plan and agreed to internal democratic reforms - including holding the first new elections in the West Bank and Gaza since 2006 - to elect leadership to run the newly united territories. Biden has taken on the practical issue of making sure the Palestinian Authority is receiving the tax revenues collected on imports, which Israel has been withholding since October 7th. In what news accounts have described as one of the more bruising conversations between Biden and Netanyahu, the President has demanded Israel transfer the funds so the Palestinian Authority can operate effectively.

In these ways doing the actual administrative work to make the state possible, while Israeli authorities continue to dodge the question of what happens on the "day after". 

Biden has scored a couple of further victories lately, in his battle with Netanyahu, in getting aid delivered to the starving Gazans through the Rafah crossing and a second crossing, at Kerem Shalom inside Israel, though not yet by the proposed sea approach; getting the PM to embark on a long-promised less lethal "second phase" in the Gaza war; and to pull back on the threat of expelling all the Gazans to a different country. But dealing with Netanyahu's wheedling, self-pity, and bad faith is getting to be a problem, according to Josh Marshall:

According to Barak Ravid of Axios and Walla News, Netanyahu recently appealed to the United Arab Emirates to see if they would foot the bill for unemployment benefits for West Bank Palestinians currently barred from entering Israel to work. Emirati President Sheikh Mohammad bin Zayed (MBZ) basically told him to f*#% off. “Ask Zelensky for the money,” he said sarcastically, according to Ravid’s sources....

Biden recently had a similar set-to with him. While refusing to accede to U.S. demands, Netanyahu pled to Biden that he couldn’t afford to offend the members of his coalition. Biden went off pointing out that Biden has all but spurred a civil war in the Democratic Party with his steadfast support for Israel. You can almost hear an exasperated Biden guffawing “C’mon, Man!” Biden reportedly hung up on him.

And in other news, South Africans have brought a pretty serious case of attempted genocide against Israel (it doesn't leave Hamas off the hook either) to the International Court of Justice. 

I hope Democrats at least, and especially the liberal and left Jewish Democrats who struggle with the desire that Palestinians should get some real justice and Israelis should have some real safety, will give Biden some credit for the skill and understanding he has brought to the project of squaring this circle.