Sunday, April 20, 2014

Annals of derp: HHIMM to Intellectual Beauty

Heritage tonight:

Where do you suppose they got this data? First note when they got it, in the little note just under Alaska: six months ago, when it's pretty hard to imagine how they could have put together a such a magisterial picture of such data as there was at the time, when [jump] wasn't even working, let alone one that would still be valid today, when we know that the premiums are significantly lower than expected.

Where they got them, it turns out, is by Heritage Magic:
The Heritage Health Insurance Microsimulation Model (HHIMM), in concordance with insurer data compiled by Mark Farrah Associates, is used to create a snapshot of what it looks like to shop for insurance prior to exchange implementation. This data is used to build weighted average premiums within the rating areas...
for the Before premiums. Then they compared these with the data from as estimated in September 2013. And then,
This analysis represents the change in unsubsidized rate levels. The purpose of this research is to provide further details on the changing premium levels across the country. With this in mind, it is true that many people will have the opportunity to lower their personal monthly costs within the exchanges if they qualify for subsidies.
So, since most 27-year-olds buying in the exchange (i.e., those without company health plans on the one hand or Medicaid on the other) would certainly be qualifying for subsidies, it was, as we say in the social sciences, bullshit then, and it's certainly double bullshit now. Why they're running it now I can't imagine, but the impulse is certainly not an honest one.
Image by GoldnSnitch.

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